AGP Executive Report

Regional Security: Somalia’s Northeastern administration ordered airlines to obtain approval before carrying weapons or troops, tightening its control over security movements. Federal Dispute: Puntland’s rejection of Somalia’s completed constitution raises questions over whether a federal member state can block the process and how powers should be settled. Egyptian Deployment: Egypt is reportedly preparing to send troops to Somalia under security cooperation and the African Union mission, though Cairo has not disclosed the force’s size. Flood Risk: Hundreds of displaced families near Beledweyne have been evicted from temporary homes as residents prepare for forecast El Niño flooding, leaving some without shelter. Gedo Power Shift: Jubbaland forces have taken control of Beled Hawo, shifting local authority away from federal-aligned forces amid wider tensions over the region. Horn Tensions: Renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea fighting is raising fears of a wider conflict, with competing claims over territory and Red Sea access adding to regional strain.

Political Tensions: Jubbaland forces entered Beled Hawo as control shifted away from federal-aligned authorities, while Laftagareen-aligned forces took Qansaxdheere. A separate dispute between North Eastern State’s president and vice president has divided lawmakers. Regional Security: Reports say Egyptian military personnel may deploy to Somalia under expanding security ties. AFRICOM also warned that the Houthis may be seeking a foothold in northern Somalia alongside al-Shabaab, raising concerns for Gulf of Aden shipping. Climate and Blue Economy: Somalia joined regional talks in Tanzania on marine conservation, climate threats and sustainable use of ocean resources. Somali Diaspora: Somali-born Sagal Abdi-Wali won a UK parliamentary by-election, prompting congratulations from Somali leaders and renewed attention to her path from refugee to MP. Community Concerns: Somali leaders in Minnesota condemned President Trump’s call for residents to “fight back” against Somali immigrants, warning that his comments risk fuelling hatred and violence.

Security: Federal troops and al-Shabaab clashed near Hees in Hiiraan on Friday, days after the army reinforced its positions there. Al-Shabaab claimed it overran a military base; reports of casualties remain unclear. Federal-State Tensions: Jubaland has reportedly taken control of the strategic Beled Hawo border town after forces aligned with Mogadishu handed over positions, a setback for the federal government’s influence in the region. Defence Spending: Reports of a possible Somali purchase of Pakistan’s JF-17 fighter jets remain unconfirmed, with no contract, price or delivery date published. An earlier figure of $900 million for 24 jets would equal about two-thirds of Somalia’s 2026 budget. Regional Ties: Middle Eastern powers are expanding their influence across Somalia, with Turkey, the UAE and Israel pursuing distinct political, commercial and security interests. Humanitarian Crisis: A storm and flash floods in Bari’s El-Gal village have left hundreds of families struggling to recover after homes, livestock and livelihoods were destroyed.

Maritime Security: Piracy off Somalia has climbed to its highest level since 2013, with 25 incidents recorded by mid-September. Naval forces diverted to other regional crises have weakened patrols, while disrupted shipping routes bring more vessels near Somalia’s coast. Counterterrorism: Puntland operations and U.S. support have disrupted Islamic State’s Somali branch finances, according to a new Africa Center for Strategic Studies report. The group had relied on extortion and illegal taxes to fund its network. Political Tensions: Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned that military pressure on opposition groups could push Somalia toward instability or authoritarian rule, urging dialogue and a broad national front. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in calling for Red Sea governance by coastal states and rejecting unilateral actions affecting water rights. Public Health: Somalia’s cabinet approved Ebola preparedness measures and formed a six-ministry committee.

Diplomacy: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says Somalia is willing to repair ties with the UAE despite a dispute over Somaliland and security agreements. Former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned Mogadishu against being drawn into regional rivalries. Maritime Security: The remaining three Pakistani crew members rescued from the hijacked tanker MT Honour 25 have returned home. Recognition: Somalia’s Elman Peace and Human Rights Centre will receive a German award for its peacebuilding and support for survivors of sexual violence. Red Sea Politics: Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in declaring that coastal states should shape Red Sea governance, as Ethiopia presses for sea access. Investment and Infrastructure: Somalia is promoting its strategic resources to foreign investors, while Türkiye has announced plans to build a spaceport in the country.

Maritime Diplomacy: Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in saying Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states. President Hassan Sheikh has also offered Ethiopia commercial access to Somali ports, as tensions rise across the region. Trade and Investment: Prime Minister Hamza closed a Somalia-EU business forum, urging European investors to explore the country’s resources. Somalia is also advancing economic reforms and seeking climate finance. Health Services: Nearly 600 health facilities at risk of closure have secured funding to stay open through December, the health minister told parliament. Security: Hawadle elders and al-Shabaab have reached a deal to end a four-year conflict, while Doolow’s commissioner said his district would follow Ethiopian forces’ policy until Somalia’s government can take control nationwide. Infrastructure: Türkiye plans to build a spaceport in Somalia as part of its ambitions for a lunar mission. Piracy: The last three Pakistani crew members from the hijacked tanker MT Honour 25 returned home after being rescued off Somalia.

Health Services: Somalia has secured funding to keep nearly 600 health facilities open through December after donor cuts threatened closures. Health Minister Ali Haji Adan said the government is seeking longer-term financing. Security: NISA says it killed former al-Shabaab Amniyat chief Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow in a Jilib operation on Oct. 1, accusing him of helping plan major attacks in Mogadishu. Federal Tensions: Doolow’s commissioner says his district will follow Ethiopian forces’ policy until a capable Somali government takes charge nationwide, as reports point to a possible Ethiopian troop withdrawal. Investment: Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre urged European businesses to invest in Somalia’s resources and key sectors, saying partnerships should support the country’s security and unity. Regional Diplomacy: At a summit with Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud backed coastal states’ role in Red Sea affairs; Ethiopia’s state media criticised the stance. Climate Risk: WFP warns Somalia is especially vulnerable to a powerful El Niño, which could bring both severe drought and intense flooding, deepening hunger.

Red Sea diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued the El Alamein joint declaration saying Red Sea governance is the job of coastal states, reaffirming freedom of navigation and rejecting unilateral moves tied to water rights and regional security. Ethiopia-Tigray spillover: Fighting in northern Ethiopia continued as federal forces retook Mekelle, while Eritrea’s diplomatic rupture with Ethiopia and EU warnings raised fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict. GERD row: Egypt and Ethiopia renewed their dispute over the GERD, with Ethiopia accusing Egypt of backing TPLF and Cairo denying interference. Somalia-Ethiopia ports: Somalia’s president said Mogadishu is ready to offer Ethiopia commercial access to ports, as Abiy Ahmed renewed calls for sea access. Climate pressure on Somalia: The World Bank warned strong El Niño could cut crop yields across Somalia and the region, threatening food security. Education funding strain: Uganda’s refugee schools face teacher wage shortfalls due to donor cuts, risking exam-year collapse for learners. Somalia in global business: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joined U.S. investors in New York to discuss financing Africa’s critical-minerals value chain. Regional security cooperation: Oman and Somalia discussed boosting food security cooperation.

Red Sea diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in Alamein calling for peaceful, political solutions amid Ethiopia’s escalating war, stressing Red Sea control by coastal states and backing Sudan’s sovereignty and a Sudan-led political process. Ethiopia-Tigray fallout: Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed began a new five-year term while fighting continues in Tigray, renewing pressure for sea access and raising fresh regional tensions with Eritrea and others. Somalia-EU/US warning: The EU warned that Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions could spiral into a wider Horn of Africa conflict, urging de-escalation and full implementation of the Pretoria ceasefire framework. Somalia-Turkey space push: Turkey says it is building a spaceport in Somalia and preparing a 2027 lunar mission, framing it as part of a broader national space program. Food security shock: The World Bank warned El Niño could cut crop yields across East Africa, including Somalia, and drive urgent food assistance needs. Somalia business/investment: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joined a New York forum on financing Africa’s critical-minerals value chain. Food security cooperation: Oman and Somalia discussed boosting cooperation in food security, agriculture, fisheries and livestock.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for political solutions as fighting escalates in Ethiopia, reaffirming Red Sea governance for coastal states and rejecting unilateral moves that could harm Nile water use. Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Reports say airstrikes and artillery hit northern Tigray, killing at least 17 near Mekelle, where federal forces reportedly took over the city after TPLF withdrew. Somalia–Pakistan Rescue: Three remaining Pakistani crew members of MT Honour 25 were rescued and flown to Addis Ababa, with Somalia and EU naval forces credited for securing their release. Somalia Economic Reform: Somalia advanced discussions on economic reforms, institutional strengthening and climate finance, including work tied to IMF programming and the National Climate Fund. Regional Security & Sovereignty: Somalia’s president reiterated Mogadishu will not accept Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” while Puntland leaders denied any plan to secede. Space & Investment: Türkiye announced plans to build a spaceport in Somalia as part of broader space ambitions, while Somalia also pushed trade and investment opportunities at the Alamein Africa Forum.

Red Sea & Nile Diplomacy: Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan issued the El Alamein Joint Declaration, reaffirming Somalia’s sovereignty and rejecting any recognition or support for Somaliland, while stressing coastal states’ exclusive role in Red Sea governance and calling for respect for international law on transboundary rivers, including the Nile. Ethiopia-Tigray Spillover Fears: As Ethiopia’s federal forces and allied Tigray forces consolidate control around Mekelle, reports say drone strikes hit an IDP camp in western Tigray, killing at least eight, with aid groups warning the fighting could widen into a broader regional conflict. Flood Risk in Somalia: SODMA warned the Shabelle River has breached at 366 critical points, raising fears of flooding as heavy rains and El Niño conditions approach, with insecurity along the river complicating maintenance. Somaliland-US Criticism: Somaliland intellectual Prof. Ahmed Ismail Samatar criticized President Irro’s recent U.S. trip as failing to deliver meaningful gains, including on the Jerusalem embassy move. Health Systems: Somalia’s government plans an integrated oxygen management system in at least 20 districts this fiscal year to expand reliable access to oxygen therapy.

Red Sea Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued the El Alamein Joint Declaration, stressing Red Sea governance by coastal states, rejecting interference in internal affairs, and warning against unilateral moves that harm Nile water rights. Somalia-Ethiopia Ports: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Mogadishu could allow Ethiopia commercial use of two or three Somali ports for imports and exports, but only under Somali sovereignty and after a formal request. Ethiopia-Tigray Escalation: Ethiopian federal forces took full control of Mekelle as TPLF withdrew, while residents reported restored communications but fear the conflict could “drag on” and regionalize. Sudan Peace Push: Egyptian President Sisi met Sudan’s Burhan to back a political solution and end the war, ahead of the same four-way summit. Piracy Aftermath: Injured Pakistani sailor Ameen bin Shams described months in captivity after the MT Honour 25 hijacking, as repatriation flights brought bodies and wounded crew home. Somalia Politics: Somalia’s electoral commission announced Hirshabelle assembly and local council results, with the Justice and Unity Party leading local seats.

Tigray Crisis and Regional Summit: Ethiopian federal forces reportedly took control of Mekelle as TPLF withdrew, while the Horn of Africa’s wider tensions spilled into diplomacy as Egypt hosted a four-way Alamein summit with Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan, amid fears of escalation. Somalia’s Red Sea Stance: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera Somalia will not accept any Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” including claims of plans to use Berbera’s port and airport. Somalia-Ethiopia Ports Talks: In Egypt, Mohamud said Somalia is ready to allow Ethiopia to use two or three Somali ports for trade, though no details were named. Somalia Elections: Somalia’s electoral commission announced Hirshabelle assembly and local council results, with the Justice and Unity Party winning the largest share of seats. Piracy Aftermath: A special flight repatriated three Pakistani sailors’ remains and four injured crew members from the MT Honour 25 case, after Puntland forces freed the tanker and captured pirates. Governance Debate: Two opinion pieces focused on Somalia’s stalled move from indirect elections and concerns about concentration of political power in key institutions.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt will host Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia leaders in Al-Alamein as renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray and a widening diplomatic rift raise fears of spillover. Somalia Sovereignty: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera he will not accept any “Israeli” military presence on Somali land, citing concerns over Berbera and Somaliland ties. Ethiopia Conflict: Ethiopian federal forces reportedly entered Mekelle and advanced after Tigrayan forces withdrew, while fighting threatens to reignite broader instability across the region. Regional Security Talks: Mohamud met Egypt’s Sisi in Al-Alamein to coordinate on Horn of Africa, Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandab and Red Sea security. Humanitarian Aid: The UN released $160m from its emergency fund, including support for Somalia amid worsening needs. Piracy Aftermath: Puntland-led recovery of the hijacked MT Honour 25 led to repatriation arrangements for three Pakistani sailors’ bodies via Addis Ababa. Local Governance: South West state held a cabinet meeting in Baidoa focused on security and community reconciliation. EAC Finance: EAC speakers in Arusha urged governments to pay arrears as the bloc faces a $125m funding gap.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki at the Alamein Africa Forum, pledging support for Somalia’s sovereignty and pushing for coordination on Red Sea security and regional stability. Regional Security Shock: In Ethiopia’s Tigray, AFP reports TPLF rebels are abandoning Mekelle as government forces advance, raising fears of wider spillover across the Horn. Somalia’s Cash Crunch: A new report warns Somalia’s rebuilt financial system is being tested by a severe shortage of cash in circulation, driven by higher import costs, political and security risk, and reduced investment. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160 million in emergency aid for 12 crisis-hit areas, including Somalia, with an extra $10 million earmarked for people with disabilities. Galmudug Politics: Somalia’s electoral commission announced results for Galmudug’s rerun, with the Justice and Solidarity Party winning the House and most local council seats. Finance Reforms: Somalia’s finance minister met Norway’s ambassador to discuss economic cooperation and reforms to strengthen public financial management. EAC Parliament Link: Somalia’s parliament speaker chaired an EAC Speakers’ Bureau meeting in Arusha, focusing on laws, oversight, and regional integration.

Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund for 12 underfunded crises, including $16m for Somalia, with an extra $10m set aside to make aid more accessible for people with disabilities. UN relief chief Tom Fletcher warned money alone won’t reach people unless access barriers are removed. Maritime Security & Hostage Aftermath: Pakistan says four of 10 crew members from the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Somalia will arrive in Karachi on Oct. 3, while three bodies are being repatriated; the remaining crew are still aboard as efforts continue for safe extraction. Elections in Galmudug: Somalia’s electoral commission announced court-ordered rerun results for Galmudug, including local council and House of Representatives outcomes, with the Justice and Unity Party leading local seats. Qatar Backs Somalia at UN: Qatar reaffirmed support for Somalia’s institutions and security at the UN Human Rights Council, calling for reforms and longer-term development alongside emergency aid.